NBA Finals 2022 odds: Should you bet on Steph Curry to win Finals MVP?

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2022 NBA Finals MVP market has been a back-and-forth battle between two players since the series tipped off June 2 in San Francisco.

Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry was the odds-on favorite before Game 1, then the Boston Celtics pulled an opening-night upset thanks to 12 points and 13 assists from 24-year-old phenom Jayson Tatum.

Tatum quickly ascended to the top spot on the betting board, only to relinquish it back to Curry after the Splash Brother poured in 29 points to even the series 1-1. The two have alternated the favorite role, with Tatum being in front after Games 1 and 3 and Curry after Games 2 and 4.

The roller-coaster ride is real.

“It’s obvious that Curry is the best player on the floor, he’s the only reason this series is tied,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told FOX Sports. “He’s out there playing four-on-five half the time, and none of his teammates can consistently create off the dribble.

“Scoring 43 points in a hostile environment when everybody knows you’re the only real threat is just absurd. I don’t know if Curry will get enough help from his supporting cast the rest of the way, but he might not even need it.”

Finals MVP odds via FOX Bet:

Steph Curry -133 (bet $10 to win $17.52 total)
Jayson Tatum +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Jaylen Brown +800 FOX Bet boost (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Marcus Smart +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Klay Thompson +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Jordan Poole +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Andrew Wiggins +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Al Horford +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Derrick White +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Draymond Green +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

The Warriors are now once again favored to win the series (-118 at FOX Bet). As for Curry, he was 2-1 or higher at most American sportsbooks before Friday night’s 43-point eruption, and he’s the clear-cut favorite now that Golden State will host two of the last three Finals games.

All that said, I wouldn’t lay -133 at FOX Bet on Curry to win the MVP at this point. Why bet $133 to win $100 when you could’ve bet $100 to win $200 before Game 4? The key to this racket is making the right bet at the right price.

So now what?

Well, the Celtics are a perfect 8-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) after a loss this postseason. If you believe in resilient trends like that, you should look to buy the dip on one of Boston’s two stars, Tatum (+200) or Jaylen Brown (+800).

Those prices are twice as nice as they were before Game 4 when Tatum was around even money (+100) and Brown was in the +350 to +400 range.

Most bettors will go out of their way to lay chalk with Curry to win Finals MVP after Game 4, but you’ll get a much better bang for your buck if you bet Brown or Tatum before the Celtics potentially steal Game 5 as short road dogs. 

Always be ahead of the curve.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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