On Tuesday, Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was prepared to accelerate the interest rate hikes it plans to begin this year if it deems it necessary to curb high inflation. Fed officials have estimated that they will raise their benchmark short-term rate, now pegged near zero, three times this year. Many economists envision as many as four Fed rate hikes in 2022.
Those rate increases would likely increase borrowing costs for home and auto purchases as well as for business loans, potentially slowing the economy. The rate hikes also mark a sharp reversal in policy by Fed policymakers, who as recently as September had been split over whether to raise rates even once this year. The Fed is also rapidly ending its monthly bond purchases, which were intended to lower longer-term interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending.
Yet the Fed’s quick pivot hasn’t quelled questions from many former Fed officials, economists and some senators about whether the Fed has acted too slowly to end its ultra-low-interest rate policies in the face of accelerating inflation — and put the economy at risk as a result.
In his testimony to Congress on Tuesday, Powell said the Fed mistakenly believed that supply chain bottlenecks that have helped drive up the prices of goods wouldn’t last nearly as long as they have. Once the supply chains were unsnarled, he said, prices would come back down.
Yet for now, the supply problems have persisted, and though there are signs that they are loosening in some industries, Powell acknowledged that progress has been limited. He noted that many cargo ships remain docked outside the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the nation’s largest, waiting to unload.
With the Biden administration facing public discontent over the rise in inflation, President Joe Biden has said his administration’s investments in ports, roads, bridges and other infrastructure would help ease inflation by loosening some snarled supply chains.
In the meantime, many restaurants have been passing some of their higher labor and food costs on to their customers in the form of higher prices. So far, many consumers seem willing to pay more. Gene Lee, CEO of Darden Restaurants, which owns Olive Garden and other brands, told investors recently that this is “the toughest inflationary environment we’ve seen in years.”
The company said its food and beverage costs jumped 9% during the quarter, and its hourly wage costs rose nearly 9% as it raised pay to attract workers. Darden said it raised its prices, in turn, by 2% during the quarter and expects to raise them by 4% over the next two quarters to help compensate. Rick Cardenas, the company’s president and chief operating officer, said those higher prices have yet to reduce consumer demand.